Clarke and parkes error grid analysis of diabetic glucose models obtained with evolutionary computation

Diabetes mellitus is a disease that affects to hundreds of millions of people worldwide. Maintaining a good control of the disease is critical to avoid severe long-term complications. In recent years, a lot of research has been made to improve the quality of life of the diabetic patient, especially in the automation of glucose level control. One of the main problems that arises in the (semi) automatic control of diabetes, is to obtain a model that explains the behavior of blood glucose levels with insulin, food intakes and other external factors, fitting the characteristics of each individual or patient. Recently, Grammatical Evolution (GE), has been proposed to solve this lack of models. A proposal based on GE was able to obtain customized models of five in-silico patient data with a mean percentage average error of 13.69%, modeling well also both hyper and hypoglycemic situations. In this paper we have extended the study of Error Grid Analysis (EGA) to prediction models in up to 8 in-silico patients. EGA is commonly used in Endocrinology to test the clinical significance of differences between measurements and real value of blood glucose, but has not been used before as a metric in obtention of glycemia models.